Autobayng News Team
Following the shock of McLaren’s double-disqualification in Las Vegas, Lando Norris can console himself with the knowledge he still enjoys a useful lead in the championship fight.
The six points he lost to team mate Oscar Piastri and 18 given up to Max Verstappen have tipped the balance, but we could characterise it as reducing Norris’s status from ‘overwhelming’ favourite to ‘clear’ favourite. He will be champion if he takes third in all the remaining races regardless of where the others finish.
Norris can still win the championship at this weekend’s Qatar Grand Prix. And this is not just an outside chance which requires him to win both races while his title rivals get lost on the way to Losail.
But it’s also clear that the chance of a high-pressure final-round championship decider just became a lot more likely.
How Norris can win the title in Qatar
As the Qatar Grand Prix is a sprint event, working out all the potential outcomes is more complicated than for an ordinary event (happily, the final six rounds on the 2026 F1 calendar will be traditional grands prix).
Points after Las Vegas GP
| Driver | Points (gap) |
|---|---|
| Lando Norris | 390 |
| Oscar Piastri | 366 (-24) |
| Max Verstappen | 366 (-24) |
For example, how many points ahead must Norris be after the grand prix to secure the title? With 25 points available in Abu Dhabi, clearly 26 would be enough and 24 would not.
But if he leaves 25 points ahead of them both, they could end the season tied on points. This has never previously happened in F1. If it does occur the tie is broken based on drivers’ results in grands prix (excluding sprint races): who has the most wins, then who has the most second places and so on until a winner is found.
It’s impossible to say at this point who would win such a tie. For example:
- Norris wins Qatar sprint race and comes second in the grand prix, Verstappen wins both grands prix: Both tied on 416 points, Verstappen wins title
- Norris eighth in Qatar sprint race, Verstappen wins either grand prix: Both tied on 391 points, Norris wins title
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Obviously the first scenario is likelier than the second, but there are many other possibilities, so we cannot know until after Sunday’s race who would win in a tie. Therefore, Norris a 26-point lead after could would definitely make Norris champion, but 25 might suffice for him depending on the circumstances.
But whether Norris needs to increase his lead over his title rivals by at least two points or one, either scenario is realistic. Norris managed exactly that in the round prior to Las Vegas, which was also a sprint event.
How the title fight can go down to the last race
If Norris was 24 points ahead of a single driver, his chances of winning the title this weekend would look very good indeed. But that fact that he has two drivers the same distance behind makes it more likely at least one of them will go to Abu Dhabi still in the hunt.
From a dry, statistical point of view, the sprint race is unlikely to make a huge difference, as the leading positions are only separated by a single point. However the recent past has shown the championship contenders can’t afford to be complacent on Saturday.
Piastri lost eight points to Norris in the last sprint race at Interlagos. In the sprint race before that, both McLaren drivers lost eight points to Verstappen.
That doesn’t change the fact that the grand prix is where the big points are awarded. Unless Norris has a particularly poor sprint race, he will likely go into the grand prix knowing he will be champion if he wins the race, or at least finishes ahead of Piastri and Verstappen.
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But the memory of last year’s result may give Norris some sleepless nights between now and then.
Last year he finished second to Piastri in the sprint race while Verstappen came in eighth. That would be no disaster for him this weekend. But in the grand prix he sank to 10th place with a penalty while Verstappen won and Piastri came third.
Here’s how the championship standings would look going into Abu Dhabi if last year’s Qatar Grand Prix result was somehow repeated:
| Driver | Points (gap) |
|---|---|
| Lando Norris | 398 |
| Max Verstappen | 392 (-6) |
| Oscar Piastri | 389 (-9) |
Of course this is not to say that is likely to happen. In particular, the circumstances of the sprint race, where Norris handed victory to Piastri as payback for his team mate doing the same at Interlagos.
But it illustrates how Norris’s 24-point lead is vulnerable to a penultimate-round wobble which could set up a nail-biting finale. Following McLaren’s bruising double disqualification, the added complication of a sprint event with limited practice plus a one-off change in the tyre rules may all prove unwelcome headaches for the championship leader.
How could this weekend’s race reshape the championship fight? Use the RaceFans F1 Points Calculator to work out all the possible permutations:
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