Max Verstappen, Red Bull, Spa-Francorchamps, 2025

After two dry days, rain is expected to hit Spa-Francorchamps, which could turn the Belgian Grand Prix on its head. Here’s the strategy briefing for round 13 of the world championship.

Weather

The forecasts of rain on Sunday have been so persuasive that some teams swapped low-drag rear wings for steeper ones between the sprint race and qualifying on Saturday, in order to ensure they are prepared for wet conditions in the grand prix. The most noteworthy case was Max Verstappen, who won the sprint race thanks to the low-drag set-up which helped him blast past Oscar Piastri’s McLaren.

While the forecasts largely agree rain will hit Spa tomorrow, the estimates of the timing and volume vary. Showers of varying intensity are likely at different times throughout the day, interspersed by dry spells. A significant amount of rain is expected before the 3pm start time for the grand prix which could disrupt the support races and leave the run-off areas saturated.

Start

Distance from pole position to first braking zone. Source: Mercedes

Spa has one of the shortest runs to the first corner of any track on the F1 calendar, but that is only part of the story. The long sprint from that first corner to Les Combes matters most and as the sprint race showed it is all too easy for drivers to lose places there.

“It’s probably the hardest track to maintain the lead on the calendar from the start,” said Piastri, who started from pole on Saturday only to lose the lead – and victory – to Verstappen.

That will change, however, if it rains. “If the weather is wet I think pole position is an advantage, but it also depends on how wet it is,” said Piastri. “Whether Eau Rouge is flat [out] or not makes a big difference.”

Start, Spa-Francorchamps, 2024
The pole-winner can keep the lead at the start – Charles Leclerc did last year

Strategy

Last year drivers chose the following compounds to start the race on:

Pos.DriverTeamTyre compound
1Charles LeclercFerrariMedium
2Sergio PerezRed Bull-Honda RBPTMedium
3Lewis HamiltonMercedesMedium
4Lando NorrisMcLaren-MercedesMedium
5Oscar PiastriMcLaren-MercedesMedium
6George RussellMercedesMedium
7Carlos Sainz JnrFerrariHard
8Fernando AlonsoAston Martin-MercedesMedium
9Esteban OconAlpine-RenaultMedium
10Alexander AlbonWilliams-MercedesMedium
11Max VerstappenRed Bull-Honda RBPTMedium
12Pierre GaslyAlpine-RenaultMedium
13Daniel RicciardoRB-Honda RBPTSoft
14Valtteri BottasSauber-FerrariMedium
15Lance StrollAston Martin-MercedesMedium
16Nico HulkenbergHaas-FerrariMedium
17Kevin MagnussenHaas-FerrariMedium
18Logan SargeantWilliams-MercedesMedium
19Zhou GuanyuSauber-FerrariHard
20Yuki TsunodaRB-Honda RBPTMedium

The full list of available slick tyres for the grand prix will be published here once it has been confirmed by Pirelli. No drivers have used any of their intermediate or wet weather tyres so far.

If the rain avoids the track, conditions are still likely to be significantly cooler than they were earlier in the weekend. In that case, Pirelli expects teams to bias their strategies towards the soft and medium tyre compounds, as the hard tyre is two steps harder than the medium, and likely to be a better tyre for hot conditions.

Overtaking

Spa-Francorchamps circuit map
Spa-Francorchamps circuit map

The DRS zones are unchanged at Spa compared to last year. The activation points are at the exit of the final corner and the kink on the Kemmel straight (between turns four and five).

Incidents

Four drivers are at least halfway towards reaching 12 penalty points, which would trigger an automatic race ban. Max Verstappen has the highest penalty points total with nine, Oliver Bearman has eight while Oscar Piastri and Liam Lawson have six each.

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Speed trap

P.#DriverCarEngineModelMax kph (mph)
143Franco ColapintoAlpineRenaultA525319.9 (198.8)
231Esteban OconHaasFerrariVF-25318.5 (197.9)
310Pierre GaslyAlpineRenaultA525318.3 (197.8)
463George RussellMercedesMercedesW16317.5 (197.3)
512Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedesMercedesW16316.6 (196.7)
630Liam LawsonRacing BullsHonda RBPT02315.9 (196.3)
744Lewis HamiltonFerrariFerrariSF-25315.8 (196.2)
822Yuki TsunodaRed BullHonda RBPTRB21315.7 (196.2)
94Lando NorrisMcLarenMercedesMCL39315.4 (196.0)
1016Charles LeclercFerrariFerrariSF-25315.1 (195.8)
116Isack HadjarRacing BullsHonda RBPT02314.7 (195.5)
1223Alexander AlbonWilliamsMercedesFW47314.5 (195.4)
1381Oscar PiastriMcLarenMercedesMCL39314.1 (195.2)
145Gabriel BortoletoSauberFerrariC45314.1 (195.2)
1555Carlos Sainz JnrWilliamsMercedesFW47313.4 (194.7)
1627Nico HulkenbergSauberFerrariC45313.4 (194.7)
171Max VerstappenRed BullHonda RBPTRB21312.3 (194.1)
1814Fernando AlonsoAston MartinMercedesAMR25311.7 (193.7)
1987Oliver BearmanHaasFerrariVF-25311.1 (193.3)
2018Lance StrollAston MartinMercedesAMR25311.0 (193.2)

Safety Cars

No Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car periods occured during either of the last two Belgian grands prix. If a rolling restart is needed, the leader can find themselves similarly vulnerable to attack on the run to Les Combes as is seen at the start of a race.

Grid

The grid for this year’s race is as follows. Any changes between now and the start of the race will be added here:

Championship implications

If the drivers finish in the order they have qualified, Norris will cut Piastri’s championship lead to just two points.

Over to you

Who has the best chance to win the Belgian Grand Prix if it rains – or stays dry? Share your views on the race in the comments.

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