F1’s last title fight which was this close after five rounds was one of the all-time greats

Five rounds in, the 2025 Formula 1 season is living up to the expectations that it would prove one of the closest contests of recent years.

Just 12 points – the equivalent of a fourth-place finish – covers the top three drivers in the points standings. It’s a far cry from last year when the gap between first and second in the standings was more than twice as much.

For the last time three drivers were separated by as little as 12 points you have to go back more than a decade to 2012. That was an extraordinarily competitive season in which a different driver won each of the first seven races.

After the first five races, eventual champion Sebastian Vettel was tied at the top of the standings with the driver who would take the title fight to the last lap of the season, Fernando Alonso. Lewis Hamilton was 12 points behind in third.

While today three drivers are within one grand prix victory (25 points) of the championship leader, in 2012 there were seven: The leading trio pursued by Kimi Raikkonen, Mark Webber, Jenson Button and Nico Rosberg. The leading septet was covered by a mere 20 points. Five drivers remained mathematically in contention with three rounds to go, though come the finale just two were left standing.

But what a finale that was. In a tense race where periodic showers ratcheted up the drama, the title contenders’ fortunes swung back and forth while the battle for victory was fought between the McLaren drivers and, most improbably, Nico Hulkenberg’s Force India.

It’s no surprise the 2012 Brazilian Grand Prix remains the top-rated race by RaceFans readers. With an average score of 9.45 out of 10, it may never be beaten.

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Could the 2025 season produce a drama to rival that? There are many factors still to determine how competitive this season turns out to be.

The most significant of these will be at what point each team calls time on its 2025 car development and switches its focus to next season. This is a major point this year because next season will bring a massive change in the technical regulations, but it was not the case in 2012.

McLaren and Red Bull have made the early running so far and will surely do everything they can to deliver a championship this year. But Mercedes and (to a greater extent) Ferrari have already lost enough ground that if they don’t make gains over the coming races, a shift of focus to 2026 will be the obvious strategic move.

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Tied in with this is the much-vaunted change in the FIA’s front wing deflection test, scheduled to come into force at round nine, the Spanish Grand Prix. Some drivers, such as Charles Leclerc, already see this as a potential opportunity. But Leclerc, Ferrari’s best-placed driver, is already 52 points behind and can scarcely afford to drop many more between now and then even if that race proves a turning point.

Could one driver assert themselves over the competition, as we saw the likes of Max Verstappen do in recent seasons? Oscar Piastri looks the likeliest candidate to do that, having now won three of the first five rounds. What happens next in the intra-McLaren team fight, now that Piastri has moved ahead of Lando Norris in the points standings, will have a profound bearing on the championship fight.

Verstappen, though, is never to be underestimated. Unlike the McLaren drivers he can take it for granted that Red Bull will operate as a one-car team around him – Yuki Tsunoda was deployed to give him the benefit of a tow in qualifying at Jeddah. The RB21 may not be quite as competitive as an MCL39, but Verstappen has the strategic advantages which come with knowing his team mate is not a rival for the world championship.

The F1 field of 2025 may not be as broadly competitive as it was 13 years ago, but the ingredients for another down-to-the-wire title fight are there. A repeat of that spellbinding 2012 race is surely too much to expect of the venue for this year’s finale, Yas Marina, where rainfall is as (in)frequent as exciting races.

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