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California has been talking about its inevitable ban on new gas cars for years. The target date, 2035, might have seemed far away when Gov. Gavin Newsom introduced the idea officially in 2020, but a lot of expectations around electric vehicles have shifted in the last five years. 

Now, California is considering whether or not 2035 is a realistic goal—and what it can realistically do in the light of a very different automotive landscape.

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Welcome back to Critical Materials, your daily roundup for all things electric and tech in the automotive space. Also on deck: Lyft’s CEO highlights the importance of human drivers and Detroit is summoned to testify in Washington, D.C. Let’s jump in.

30%: California’s 2035 EV Mandate Loses Steam

Photo by: Rivian

The California Air Resources Board (CARB), now blocked by the federal government from enforcing its far-reaching emissions rules, has begun rethinking some of them. Its target goal to eliminate the sales of new gas cars by 2035 has been a long-standing push by the state government, but now it’s becoming a “very active area of discussion.”

The federal waiver given to California under the Clean Air Act allowed the state to set its own emission standards. More than a dozen other states then agreed to follow these standards. Axios gives a briefing on what’s up in the air now—besides pollution:

California’s strict emission rules, blocked by the Trump administration in June, had been a template for other states that share its ambitious climate goals.

But as they now look to replace those rules, state regulators are signaling that requiring all new cars to be electric by 2035 might not be practical anymore. Affordability concerns, vanishing tax incentives and insufficient EV charging infrastructure make it unlikely that automakers can achieve escalating EV sales targets.

“We cannot enforce these rules at the moment,” Christopher Grundler, deputy executive officer at the California Air Resources Board, told participants at a CARB workshop last month.

Coming along for the legal ride are other states where Attorneys General have signed onto the lawsuit against the Feds to fight for California’s state rights. Other states like Maryland, Washington and Vermont have paused enforcement of their own EV sales targets.

Here’s what CARB’s chair told Politico:

CARB officially opened its rulemaking on new vehicle emissions regulations at a workshop last week, and hopes to finalize the rules by summer 2027.

“I think that remains a very ambitious goal, and I am grateful — as you saw in the workshop last week — that we now have the time to rethink creatively what that goal should be going forward,” Sanchez said in a wide-ranging interview with POLITICO.

As it looks, though, plenty of people in California and across the U.S. will continue to drive (and buy) new gas cars in a decade. But that’s a long time from now and—as we’ve seen—a lot can change in 10 years.

60%: Lyft CEO Says Robotaxis Won’t Replace Humans Anytime Soon

Photo by: Lyft

Robotaxi proponents love to talk up the potential of a driverless future like the current market is just some giant loading screen between the invention of the steering wheel and its removal. Naturally, AV providers are some of the most excited about this potential—but not all rideshare companies are feeling that way.

Lyft’s CEO, David Risher, recently spoke on the topic with a more grounded take: human drivers aren’t going anywhere any time soon. Not in ten years, and certainly not in five. Manufacturers aren’t ready, and neither are regulators or riders. Here’s what Fortune, quoting Risher, has to say:

“That will be the case for years and years and years to come,” he said. The [car manufacturers] aren’t entirely ready. The technology isn’t entirely ready for fog or snow or heavy rain or whatever it is. People, riders aren’t necessarily excited about it [and] regulators aren’t necessarily enthusiastic about it in every place,” he said.

That’s going to make the rollout of self-driving slow. Risher said he would be surprised if 10% of Lyft’s business came from self-driving vehicles by 2030.

He thinks most people are wary of self-driving cars and prefer a human at the wheel. “Customers won’t demand it. They’ll just say, I don’t want to get in a self-driving car.”

There’s an ulterior motive to Risher’s belief, though: the almighty dollar.

It comes from the value proposition that robotaxis bring the company. Sure, they can’t call in sick, but with the way that Lyft operates today, many of the company’s actual costs—we’re talking about depreciation, maintenance, cleaning, charging and even some financial risk—are shifted to the driver since they’re the owner of the vehicle. That sort of risk transfer is the company’s entire business model as of today.

There’s also a massive upfront cost to buy a full-fledged, vetted autonomous vehicle capable of being a robotaxi. “Today, these cost maybe $250,000 to $300,000,” said Risher, clearly disregarding Tesla’s promise of a cheap, vision-based autonomous robotaxi. “A very expensive product, whereas a Prius or Corolla is maybe $30,00 or $40,000.”

So, where does the CEO see things going? Nowhere fast: “I don’t think the idea of a driver being replaced by a robot is a very likely thing. In fact, I think it’s zero likelihood in any reasonable time frame.”

90%: Detroit Summoned To Testify In DC Together For First Time Since 2008

Photo by: InsideEVs

It looks like Detroit is getting the band back together. Not for a reunion tour, but for a formal hearing. For the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, Detroit’s big three—Ford, GM and Stellantis—are being summoned to Washington together.

The trio (plus Tesla, to represent Silicon Valley) will make their way to Capitol Hill in January so that lawmakers can poke and prod one big elephant that helped drive inflation over the last five years: vehicle affordability. But their target here is clearly emissions rules and investments in electric vehicles. 

Automotive News reveals the details:

The committee’s Jan. 14 hearing “will examine how radical global warming regulations and mandated technologies have driven up the cost of vehicles for American consumers,” [Senator Ted] Cruz said in a statement.

The Texas Republican said American consumers are “hyper-focused” on rising vehicle prices and that Congress needs to address the issue. In the statement, he said senators want to look at “how government interference continues to make vehicles expensive and out of reach for American customers and how we can restore competition and choice.”

[…] The invitation to testify cited data saying the average price of a new vehicle in the U.S. has doubled from $24,296 in 2015 to more than $50,000 today. 

When the three were last in D.C. together, the atmosphere was less conversational and more about Washington helping out with a bailout. Nobody is asking for checks this time around, though. Instead, it seems like a politically-charged probe into safety and regulatory requirements set during previous administrations.

Interestingly—and surely without coincidence—these hearings will be held on the first day of the 2026 Detroit Auto Show. That means that if any new products or big announcements are to be made that day, it’ll be done without the help of the CEOs.

100%: Can Automakers Talk Their Way Out Of The Affordability Crisis?

When adjusted for inflation, the average vehicle price of $24,296 from 2015 is about $34,000. Lawmakers want to know where that other $16,000 came from, and some appear to suspect the additional costs are related to “mandated technologies” and emissions. 

Since 2015, automakers have been required to add tech like rear backup cameras, have voluntarily added automatic emergency braking in preparation for further mandates and also new ADAS tech (like lane centering) that require more advanced sensor suites. And let’s not forget stricter emission requirements.

Are lawmakers right in probing automakers about inflated costs, or is the reasoning obvious? And what does that mean for the future of vehicle prices are tech becomes even more intricate? Let me know your thoughts in the comments.

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