Analysis: Was Leclerc gambling on Norris giving Verstappen payback for last year?

Last year in Austin Charles Leclerc lined up fourth on the grid but emerged from the first turn in the lead and went on to win.

He owed a debt of gratitude for that race-winning start to Max Verstappen. The Red Bull driver, leading the championship at the time, had started the race from second on the grid, inside his closest rival Lando Norris.

Norris approached the first corner tamely, leaving Verstappen all the room he needed to dive down the inside. Verstappen took full advantage, forcing Norris off at the outside of the corner, doing everything he could to minimise the McLaren driver’s potential points haul by ensuring he fell behind the chasing Ferraris.

Was Leclerc hoping Norris would exact revenge this year? He had the opportunity and the motive: Norris took second on the grid behind Verstappen, who had cut deeply into the McLaren drivers’ points advantage over the preceding races.

Every driver in the top 15 places on the grid opted to start on the medium compound tyres, with one exception: third-placed Leclerc. “I knew it was an aggressive strategy,” he admitted after the race. “My plan was to be first after the first corner.”

Even assuming both front-row starters lined up on the medium compound rubber – as they did – this would have been optimistic for Leclerc. According to Pirelli the soft rubber was worth less than half a car length versus the medium as they accelerated to 150kph.

But Leclerc was not counting on Norris starting on mediums. He told the McLaren driver in the cool-down room after the race he thought Norris would start on softs.

Had Norris done so, he would have had a better chance to attack Verstappen on the inside at the start. It could have been an opportunity for him to deal with Verstappen every bit as aggressively as his rival dealt with him last year.

Why did McLaren pass up that opportunity? The events of the sprint race, where both their cars were taken out on the first lap, may have led them to be more conservative.

They didn’t have as much data as their rivals on how their tyres would perform over a stint. Speaking before the race Norris said he had “no idea” how his car might perform in the grand prix.

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“I don’t think I’ve done more than three laps in a row and not more than, like, 40 kilos of fuel,” he said.

“We don’t know if it’s going to be amazing or terrible, certainly around here because it’s so difficult with the bumps and the bottoming and the winds. It’s unpredictable.

“We were hoping to learn a lot this morning in the sprint [race] in terms of how the car set-up was going to be from quali to race and how it changes and the things that are good and bad, and then hopefully make tweaks for this quali for the race tomorrow.”

So Norris started the race on the medium rubber and Verstappen clung tight to the inside of turn one to prevent him from passing. Leclerc was easily able to sweep past the McLaren on his soft rubber but never got close to passing Verstappen ahead.

Leclerc admitted he had second thoughts over his strategy when he learned only two other drivers at the back of the field had lined up on softs.

“I knew it was aggressive but considering the feeling I had on the hard in FP1, I was quite convinced I didn’t want to touch that tyre,” he said. “I was just a little bit worried when my engineer got on the radio on the grid and I was the only car on softs, basically. So I thought, ‘okay, maybe there’s something I didn’t feel right.’ But it ended up a good choice.”

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“I didn’t quite make [it to first] but at least I gained a position, which helped me a little bit with free air,” he added. “And that definitely helped our race.”

It certainly did not help Norris’s race, as it meant he had to pass Leclerc twice while Verstappen could nurse his tyres in clean air at the front of the field. Norris said it was far from certain he would have been better off starting on the soft tyres, but admitted he could have been closer to Verstappen had he not spent most of his race staring at Leclerc’s rear wing.

“I found it difficult enough just to get close to Charles, and their pace wasn’t bad at all. Until 10 laps to go he was like six seconds off Max. So it wasn’t like we were that far away or their pace was that bad.

“I think it was a good race, the pace was pretty close, I think that’s why it was so difficult — because we were quicker, for sure, but not by a lot.”

Verstappen, who won by just under eight seconds, also suspected “it would be a very close race” had Leclerc not split him from Norris at the start. “Every time I think that Lando was in clean air, we were very evenly matched.

“Maybe at times, he was a bit faster as well. So it wouldn’t have been the gap that it was at the end.”

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2025 United States Grand Prix lap chart

The positions of each driver on every lap. Click name to highlight, right-click to reset. Toggle drivers using controls below:

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2025 United States Grand Prix race chart

The gaps between each driver on every lap compared to the leader’s average lap time. Very large gaps omitted. Scroll to zoom, drag to pan and right-click to reset. Toggle drivers using controls below:

2025 United States Grand Prix lap times

All the lap times by the drivers (in seconds, very slow laps excluded). Scroll to zoom, drag to pan and toggle drivers using the control below:

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2025 United States Grand Prix fastest laps

Each driver’s fastest lap:

2025 United States Grand Prix tyre strategies

The tyre strategies for each driver:

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2025 United States Grand Prix pit stop times

How long each driver’s pit stops took:

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