Alonso to retire? Horner to return? Give your views on these 10 F1 predictions for 2026

This could be one of the trickiest seasons to predict for many years. But we can try tackling some of the many intriguing questions hanging over the upcoming championship.

Will this be the final season for Fernando Alonso? Will Ferrari and Mercedes rebound from their disappointing 2025 campaigns? Give your views on these questions and more below.

Ferrari vindicated

The 2025 season was a grim experience for Ferrari, especially for new arrival Lewis Hamilton. The team went win-less for the first time since 2021 – with the sole exception of the Shanghai sprint race, which proved a false dawn for its superstar signing.

According to Ferrari, they downed tools on their 2025 project early in order to improve their chances of success under the new technical regulations which arrive this year. But they aren’t the only team to have done that, and their loss of direction last year leaves questions hanging over the effectiveness of their operation. Will they at least win a race this year?

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Do you agree Ferrari will win a grand prix during 2026?

• No opinion (1%)
• Strongly disagree (4%)
• Slightly disagree (12%)
• Neither agree nor disagree (10%)
• Slightly agree (48%)
• Strongly agree (26%)

Total Voters: 124

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All over for Alonso

The most experienced Formula 1 driver of all time will celebrate his 45th birthday this year – and mark the 20th anniversary of his last world championship win. He has dropped hints he may not continue beyond this year regardless of how competitive his Aston Martin is. Will Alonso finally hang up his helmet?

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Horner returns

Christian Horner’s shock ousting from Red Bull after 20 years in charge was one of the shock stories of last year. Since then rumours have persisted he will return with another team.

Ferrari and Aston Martin have denied they are pursuing the man who moulded Red Bull into the potent force they are today. Endless speculation swirls around the possibility he could buy into Alpine’s operation. Will Horner be back at the helm of an F1 team before the season is over?

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Bearman banned

Oliver Bearman ended last season with the most penalty points of any driver – and was arguably fortunate not to have even more than he did. The Haas driver only collected a single penalty point for forcing Liam Lawson off on a straight during the sprint race at Interlagos.

As a result he ended the year just two penalty points away from an automatic race ban. The Haas driver will have to avoid collecting two further points over the first six rounds if he is to avoid triggering a ban. Will he avoid being ruled out for a race?

Do you agree Oliver Bearman will collect a one-race ban during the 2026 season?

• No opinion (0%)
• Strongly disagree (18%)
• Slightly disagree (32%)
• Neither agree nor disagree (11%)
• Slightly agree (29%)
• Strongly agree (10%)

Total Voters: 125

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Points for Cadillac

Formula 1 has a new team for the first time in a decade. Cadillac have worked for years on their entry (previously under the Andretti name) and hired an experienced, race-winning duo in Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Perez. But the standard of competition in Formula 1 has grown remarkably high in recent years.

Haas set a high bar when they became the last new team to enter F1 in 2016, scoring points on their debut. However they had the advantage of being able to source a significant amount of their parts from Ferrari – Cadillac have had to do more of their own development. Given how close the field was last year, will Cadillac manage to score a point in their first season?

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Will Cadillac score a point during 2026?

• No opinion (1%)
• Strongly disagree (15%)
• Slightly disagree (17%)
• Neither agree nor disagree (2%)
• Slightly agree (37%)
• Strongly agree (29%)

Total Voters: 124

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Another season for Hadjar

This time 12 months ago we were wondering whether Liam Lawson would secure his future at Red Bull. He lasted just two rounds before the team dropped him for Yuki Tsunoda, who was also not retained.

During that time Red Bull replaced team principal Christian Horner with Laurent Mekies. Will he be sufficiently impressed by Hadjar’s performance in his second season of F1 to retain him for 2027?

Will Red Bull give Isack Hadjar a second season at the team in 2027?

• No opinion (1%)
• Strongly disagree (2%)
• Slightly disagree (10%)
• Neither agree nor disagree (5%)
• Slightly agree (49%)
• Strongly agree (33%)

Total Voters: 122

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Mercedes back on top

The team which dominated F1 in the years after the V6 hybrid turbo regulations were introduced did not thrive in the short-lived ‘ground effect’ era. After eight consecutive constructors’ championship titles up to 2021, Mercedes have won just seven grands prix over the last four years.

Some have suggested the introduction of new technical regulations for 2026 will play to Mercedes’ engine-building strengths. But Mercedes haven’t even been able to beat their own customer teams recently, lagging behind McLaren. Will the factory team reassert themselves under the new rules?

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Do you agree Mercedes will be the highest-placed Mercedes-powered team in 2026?

• No opinion (0%)
• Strongly disagree (11%)
• Slightly disagree (28%)
• Neither agree nor disagree (20%)
• Slightly agree (28%)
• Strongly agree (13%)

Total Voters: 121

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Herta gains superlicence

IndyCar race-winner Colton Herta is going to surprising lengths to boost his chances of gaining an F1 race seat. He has switched from the category, in which he was already a championship runner-up and its youngest ever race-winner, to compete in Formula 2, which offers far more FIA superlicence points.

An eighth-place finish in the championship should ensure he passes the 40-point threshold to be able to race in F1. However even if he finishes lower than that he could accrue extra superlicence points by appearing in practice sessions. If Herta can clear the last hurdle he stands a strong change of gaining a race seat at Cadillac for 2027 – but will he ensure he gets that chance?

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More sprint races

F1 seems determined to cram yet more sprint races into the schedule. Having increased the tally to six, F1 has changed the venues of many sprint races this year, seemingly in preparation to increase the count to as many as 12 in future seasons.

The championship’s enthusiasm is difficult to understand given how processional they are, but F1 CEO Stefano Domenicali clearly believes they are the future. Will F1 add even more sprint races to the calendar for 2027?

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Down to the final round

Last year F1 enjoyed its first championship-deciding season finale involving more than two drivers since 2010. But this year is potentially the hardest season to predict for many years: we could be about to see a down-to-the-wire title fight between multiple drivers, an utter rout where the outcome is obvious after half-a-dozen events, or anything in between. Do you have a hunch we’ll see another championship showdown in December?

Will the 2026 F1 drivers’ title be decided at the final round?

• No opinion (3%)
• Strongly disagree (46%)
• Slightly disagree (38%)
• Neither agree nor disagree (7%)
• Slightly agree (6%)
• Strongly agree (2%)

Total Voters: 120

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I say

Ferrari made a decent fist of adapting to the last new set of technical regulations in 2022 and I believe they’re capable of doing the same again. So I think they will win at least one round this year, though whether they can sustain that as a competitive force over the following seasons is another matter. I also suspect Mercedes will find themselves back in front of McLaren – not to mention Williams and Alpine – this year.

Fernando Alonso’s remark last year that he’s more likely to retire if Aston Martin are competitive this year struck me as a way of saying he expects the team will swoop for another top driver – potentially Max Verstappen – if they start the new rules era strongly. Either way, I feel the odds are better than even that he will finally hang up his helmet at the end of 2026.

I expect Christian Horner will return eventually, but when the opportunity is right for him to do so, and I’m not convinced that will happen this year. F1 increasing the number of sprint races to 12 looks like a grim inevitability however.

I don’t rate Oliver Bearman’s chances of avoiding a ban because he has so often complained about clear penalty calls which have gone against him. Unless Haas have locked him in a room with the sporting regulations over the off-season I wouldn’t bet against him reaching the dreaded 12 penalty point threshold.

Hadjar impressed me last year so I’ll tip him to get a second season at Red Bull. The reset in the regulations should also mean Red Bull’s car is less finely-honed to his team mate’s preferences, at least to begin with. I’ll also tip Cadillac to pick up at least one point, which should be possible assuming reliability will be far from perfect for everyone in the first year with new engines, and Herta to qualify for a superlicence.

As for a final round title decider, I think it’s unlikely. When regulations changes like these happen, one team tends to gain an upper hand, and even if they aren’t dominant I suspect the drivers’ title will be decided before Yas Marina.

You say

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