Pricier oil adds to Beijing

China’s gasoline demand is expected to slide further this year, as the Iran war pushes up oil prices and accelerates a long-term shift away from the internal combustion engine.

Gasoline consumption could shrink 5.5 per cent this year, according to a forecast from GL Consulting, which has downgraded its estimate from a previous 5.2 per cent. That would be the second-biggest contraction on record – and only after 2022, when China’s draconian Covid lockdowns caused demand to collapse.

GL said its lower forecast reflected the impact of increasing prices as the conflict in the Persian Gulf upends the oil and gas trade. It matches bleak predictions coming from other analysts – the International Energy Agency sees Chinese gasoline demand slowing “to a crawl” in this quarter, down by about 60,000 barrels a day compared with the same time last year.

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