India

BHP said India continues to stand out as the fastest-growing major economy, with momentum underpinned by strong domestic demand, favourable demographics, and rising investment.

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Demand for iron ore, coking coal, and Potash is expected to significantly rise in India according to BHP’s economic and commodity outlook. This is on the back of higher infrastructure investment accelerating and manufacturing expanding. The country is expected to quadruple its annual steel demand in the coming 25 years, directly driving the need for these raw materials.According to BHP, the steelmaking raw materials are expected to enter an era of adjustment. The outlook expects India “…to increasingly become an opportunistic importer (of iron-ore), with potential upside during periods of domestic supply disruption.” India exported an average of 30 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in the past nine years.Calibrated stimulus in China, and continued strength in India are expected to provide support for minerals. “Over the next year, we expect refined copper, uranium and potash markets to be roughly balanced, while steelmaking raw materials and nickel to be in surplus,” BHP said.The coming years will be characterised by the crosscurrents of China’s crude steel plateau maturing, India, and Southeast Asia’s steel capacity growth, and shifting supply driven by new market entrants and a depleting resource base.

BHP said India continues to stand out as the fastest-growing major economy, with momentum underpinned by strong domestic demand, favourable demographics, and rising investment.

“India, along with other parts of developing Asia, are in the early stages of a long structural growth cycle, partly underpinned by regional trade integration,” BHP added.

Commenting on the year gone by, BHP said global steel production was resilient in the first half of calendar year 2025 (H1CY25), with “steady production in China and growing production in India offsetting weakness in Europe and Asian advanced economies,” the outlook noted.

The onus it seems is now on India for driving global steel demand and BHP expects the country is likely to make up for a proportion of China’s anticipated steel production decline in the post-plateau era.Regarding Potash, BHP said benchmark prices rose over H1 CY25 as markets tightened on strong demand and good affordability in key regions. “New contracts were signed for China and India at $346 per tonne and $349 per tonne respectively, up ~25% from the previous year. With the recent price appreciation, potash affordability has moderated, though it remains the most affordable of the bulk macronutrient fertilisers,” the BHO outlook said.India showed the strongest demand growth in the first 5 months of the CY (the latest available data), with imports up over 20% annually.

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