- The Tesla Model Y six-seater may skip the U.S. market.
- CEO Elon Musk says that the vehicle is scheduled to be built in the U.S. at the end of 2026, but Tesla may skip the model entirety because of the “advent of self-driving.”
- It’s not clear how self-driving solves the same problem that adding a third row in the Model Y does.
Tesla officially unleashed the Model Y L in China this week. Buyers are excited, and Tesla fans all over the world are interested in the six-seat model. But back home in America, the LWB variant is getting the back burner. In fact, it may never come to Tesla’s home market at all.
The upsetting news comes directly from CEO Elon Musk, who sent people on a roller coaster of emotions with a post on his social media platform, X.
At first glance, the post inspires a bit of hope, that the three-row Model Y will eventually come to America, albeit a bit late. Musk noted that it would enter U.S. production at “the end of next year.” However, he then ends the post with a damning declaration: “Might not ever, given the advent of self-driving in America.”
Musk’s reasoning reveals a Tesla sales play that’s been becoming ever-more apparent in recent months. The future of Tesla is being bet on autonomy and the automaker is considering if it should skip selling a car that would otherwise move like hotcakes. Why? Because Tesla believes it can deliver on autonomy (and that the public will adopt it) very, very quickly. Because of that, Musk has implied that any capital spent on human-driven models would be better spent on developing his autonomous platform.
But let’s temper that with a bit of context. Tesla’s sales have been slumping in pretty much every single market, the U.S. included. Even the standard wheelbase Model Y failed to ignite demand after its recent facelift. The recent perceived uptick, led primarily by federal tax credit FOMO, is still lukewarm at best and is likely temporary as the entire EV industry faces an almost certain slowing after the $7,500 EV tax credit is abolished next month.
And let’s not forget that even if Tesla succeeds on delivering a fully autonomous vehicle at-scale by next year, it still doesn’t solve the core problem of space inside of adding a third row to the Model Y (which is probably the most perplexing thing about Musk’s reasoning).
Now zoom in on Telsa’s Robotaxi ambitions. The brand has been rolling out its ride hailing service in full force recently, including a wide rollout in Austin, Texas and California, plus job postings in cities like New York to indicate how quickly the brand plans to move forward with expansion. However, Tesla continues to operate with safety operators in the front seat. In some circumstances, Tesla foregoes autonomy altogether and places safety drivers in charge.
“If they were striving to re-create today’s Bay Area Uber experience, looks like they’ve absolutely nailed it,” said former Waymo CEO, John Krafcik.
The bottom line is that U.S. buyers are telling Tesla that they’re ready for a family SUV priced like a Model Y, but Tesla isn’t ready to deliver in the U.S. market. Instead, the brand’s logic is that autonomy trumps all and also somehow solves the problem of adding more room inside of the Model Y. So even if the autonomy play hits, Tesla may still be out buyers if it chooses to forego the three-row crossover.
So, for now, expect the six-seater Model Y to be a China-exclusive car. Other parts of the world with fewer import restrictions (such as those built by tariffs) could also get the Chinese-built variant, but the U.S. will be left in the dark until at least the end of 2026—if it gets it at all, that is.
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