Indian CV industry wholesale volumes likely to grow 3–5% in FY26: ICRA – ET Auto

The Indian commercial vehicle (CV) industry is expected to register a modest 3–5 per cent year-on-year (YoY) growth in wholesale volumes in FY26. It is driven by the resumption of construction and infrastructure activities and a stable economic environment, according to a recent report by ratings agency ICRA.Domestic CV wholesale volumes saw a marginal 0.1 per cent YoY increase in May 2025, with a sequential growth of around 1.6 per cent. However, for the first two months of FY26 (April–May 2025), volumes declined by 0.7 per cent YoY. Retail volumes presented a more concerning trend, falling 3.7 per cent YoY in May and down 11.3per cent sequentially, reflecting elevated inventory levels at dealerships.

M&HCV and LCV forecast

In the medium and heavy commercial vehicle (M&HCV) segment, retail sales volumes dipped 4.4per cent YoY in May 2025 and declined 18.9per cent sequentially. According to ICRA, regional disruptions and geopolitical tensions impacted demand during the month. For FY26, M&HCV (trucks) wholesale volumes are projected to grow 0–3per cent YoY, following a 4per cent decline in FY25.Light commercial vehicle (LCV) retail sales dropped 3.2per cent YoY in May and 4.9per cent sequentially, reflecting continued muted demand. ICRA attributes this to increased buyer preference for pre-owned vehicles in this segment. LCV (trucks) wholesale volumes are forecast to grow by 3–5per cent in FY26.While the truck segments are expected to see modest gains, the buses segment is poised for stronger growth, with an 8–10per cent YoY increase projected. The revival in replacement demand is expected to support this surge.ICRA concludes that while the CV industry remains on a recovery path, volume growth will be moderate and driven by infrastructure momentum, steady economic activity, and fleet replacement demand across segments.