EVs projected to hold 30% share of India’s 2W market by 2030: Kearney

According to the report, the household two-wheeler penetration is projected to rise from 75 per cent in 2020 to 89 per cent by 2030.

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The white paper, Indian Two-Wheeler Industry – Themes to Win in the Next Era of Transformation, was released at the 65th Annual Session of the Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India (ACMA). It projects that annual EV sales could reach seven million units by the end of the decade, with scooters making up nearly 80 per cent of this volume.

Current trends and adoption

The study noted that EV adoption has accelerated, with sales growing 3.5 times in the last three years and reaching about 7 per cent of the total market. Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities are leading the transition, adopting EVs at two to three times the pace of metro cities.

India, already the largest two-wheeler manufacturing hub producing 35 per cent of global volumes, recorded domestic sales of 19.6 million units in FY2025, returning to pre-pandemic levels.

The report highlighted changing consumer preferences driven by urbanisation, congestion and the growth of the female workforce, contributing to increased scooter adoption. Penetration of scooters is projected to reach 40 per cent by FY2030.

It also pointed to growth in premium motorcycles. The 150cc segment rose from 8 per cent to 12 per cent in the last five years, while the 250cc–450cc category increased from 6 per cent to 9 per cent.

The gig and delivery economy is expected to add 7–8 million vehicles over the next five years, with food, grocery and logistics operators adopting EVs for fleet use.

Kearney recommended that original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) diversify product portfolios, speed up product launches, strengthen software capabilities and invest in ecosystem partnerships. The report concluded that household two-wheeler penetration is projected to rise from 75 per cent in 2020 to 89 per cent by 2030.