EVs Had A Monster Quarter. Can It Keep Going Without Tax Credits?

EVs Had A Monster Quarter. Can It Keep Going Without Tax Credits?

This year will likely go down in history as a period of record electric vehicle adoption in the face of immense economic turmoil and trade disruptions. With the end of the $7,500 federal clean vehicle credit in sight, American consumers showed up in force over the last few months to claim the incentives and drive home a battery-powered car. Data shows that the country’s appetite for EVs exploded thanks largely to the expiring policy framework.

Welcome to the Friday edition of Critical Materials, your daily round-up of news shaping the world of electric cars and transportation technology. Also on our radar today: Why Tesla has urged the U.S. government to preserve key tailpipe-emissions regulations. Plus, the Trump administration wants a stake in America’s largest lithium mining project.

30%: EV Sales Shatter New Record Ahead Of Projected Slowdown

Photo by: InsideEVs

Americans bought nearly half a million battery-powered cars in the third quarter, rushing to claim federal tax credits of up to $7,500 before they expire on Sept. 30.

The research firm Cox Automotive projected on Thursday that EV sales will hit 410,000 for the quarter, pushing the electric share of the U.S. car market to a landmark 10% for the first time ever. Cox had expected that milestone by year’s end, but it arrived a quarter early thanks to sweeping EV policy changes under the Trump administration.

Photo by: Kevin Williams/InsideEVs

The end of the tax credits “sparked an unmistakable pre-expiration rush as consumers and dealers moved quickly to lock in benefits before the incentives phased out,” Stephanie Valdez Streaty, the director of industry insights at Cox Automotive, told reporters during a sales forecast call on Thursday.

Automakers, meanwhile, are squeezing every last drop out of the federal incentives bucket before they vanish, rolling out aggressive lease and financing deals, cash-back discounts, and trade-in bonuses to sway more Tesla owners toward rivals like Lucid and Polestar.

In the third quarter, sales were down for market-leader Tesla, according to Cox Automotive data, but EV sales volumes set a new record regardless of that. That’s thanks to the likes of General Motors, Honda and Hyundai stepping up.

Chevrolet is now the number two EV seller in the country, thanks to models such as the Equinox EV, Blazer EV and Silverado EV. Cadillac has also seen a surge in EV sales with its popular Lyriq and Optiq crossovers.

Photo by: Cadillac

But Valdez Streaty warned that a slowdown could be coming. “The quarter delivered record EV sales and market share, but the pace will ease in Q4 and beyond as the impact of the IRA tax incentive begins to fade,” she said.

Analysts have predicted a slowdown after Sept. 30, but the extent of the damage is still unknown. And automakers are already preparing to thrive in a post-tax-credit world, moving to address the key challenge for the EV industry, which is affordability.

The results of that are now just starting to show, thanks to new low-cost models such as the next-generation Nissan Leaf, the upcoming Chevy Bolt EV, Tesla’s affordable Model Y-based EV, Kia EV3 and more such models in the pipeline.

The end of the tax credits may put more pressure on automakers to drive organic growth in sales. That means launching EVs that compete on merit rather than drool-worthy monthly deals and zero down payments.

60%: Tesla Urges The EPA To Preserve The Tailpipe Emissions Regulations

Photo by: Tesla

Tesla may no longer market itself aggressively as a car company, but it’s quietly behaving like one. The automaker, which is now pivoting to AI and robotics, urged the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to preserve the tailpipe emissions regulations that the Trump administration is seeking to repeal.

In a regulatory filing submitted by Tesla and posted by the EPA on Wednesday, the automaker has argued that the EPA’s “Endangerment Finding,” which concludes that greenhouse gas emissions threaten public health and welfare, is backed by robust science and facts. The Trump EPA wants to scrap the finding, the bedrock of emissions regulations in this country, after over a decade on the books. 

Under the Biden administration, the EPA finalized the most stringent emissions rules in U.S. history. The rules would have required automakers to make cars that release fewer and fewer CO2 emissions over time, encouraging them to sell more EVs to meet their emissions target. Automakers can also sell hybrids and plug-in hybrids to meet these goals.

Tesla said rolling back these regulations would disrupt investments, hand automakers a free pass on emissions, and hurt U.S. competitiveness. It also said the agency hasn’t provided enough scientific or economic justification for rolling back the standards and its analysis ignores the cost savings and pollution benefits of EVs.

90%: The Trump Administration Wants To Buy A Stake In Lithium Americas

Photo by: Lithium Americas

Weeks after the Trump administration bought a 10% stake in American semiconductor company Intel, it is now seeking to do something similar with Lithium Americas, which is building one of the country’s largest domestic lithium mining projects in Nevada.

The Thacker Pass lithium project could help the U.S. become more independent, and help boost the country’s domestic lithium production and move away from Chinese supply chains. The raw material is used in everything from electric vehicles to consumer electronics and home appliances.

The scale of the Thacker Pass projects is among the largest in the world for a single site. Currently, the U.S. produces less than 5,000 metric tons of lithium at Albemarle’s Nevada facility. Thacker Pass’s first phase is expected to produce 40,000 metric tons of battery-grade lithium annually, enough to power 800,000 EVs, Reuters reported.

General Motors owns a 38% stake in the mine, and reportedly has the right to purchase all of the lithium output from the project’s first phase. The Trump administration is seeking guarantees from GM that it will buy the lithium and is also pushing the automaker to give up control over parts of the projects and hand them over to the U.S. government.

100%: Did You Rush To Buy An EV This Quarter?

Photo by: Motor1.com

Americans snapped up EVs in record numbers this quarter, pushing the industry past the 10% market share milestone. Did you rush to grab the tax credit before it expires next week? What model did you choose and how was the buying process? Was claiming the credit at the point of sale (or through a lease/finance deal) smooth, or a headache?

Share your experience in the comments, or shoot me an email!

Have a tip? Contact the author: suvrat.kothari@insideevs.com

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