Did Verstappen give up his fight against Norris too late? Miami GP data analysed

Lando Norris encountered Max Verstappen’s uncompromising defensive style once again during the Miami Grand Prix.

The McLaren driver came out ahead for once but it was a pyrrhic victory: the time it took Norris to pass the Red Bull cost him any chance of catching and passing his team mate, who won the race.

On the face of it, there was a tinge of bitterness in Norris’s assessment of Verstappen’s defensive driving. “He’s ruined his own race,” Norris remarked. “He’s not racing very smart.” But in a simplistic sense, Norris has a point.

The race chart below makes it clear Verstappen lost around six-and-a-half seconds defending his second place by Norris between laps 14 and 17. That lost time came back to haunt Verstappen on lap 30 when George Russell took advantage of a Virtual Safety Car period to pit and emerged one-and-a-half seconds ahead of the Red Bull.

Even if Verstappen had fought Norris for a couple of laps, realised he wasn’t going to keep him behind and then let him go, he would still have had a chance of staying ahead of the Mercedes. Yes, Russell was fortunate to benefit from a VSC, but it’s not as if they’re an uncommon threat at tracks like Miami – another occured just four laps later.

Regardless, the numbers show Norris is undoubtedly correct to suggest Verstappen could have finished one place higher had he thrown in the towel sooner in their fight. His claim Verstappen might have somehow split the McLarens for second place is for the birds, but the Red Bull should have been third at least.

What’s more, however tough Verstappen is when he defends his position, he is prepared to cede a place when he knows a fight isn’t worth having. Consider how easily he let Norris pass him early in the British Grand Prix last year, just one week after he pushed the rules to the limit and arguably beyond when protecting his lead in Austria.

Moreover, Verstappen eventually did give up the fight yesterday in Miami. On lap 18 at turn 11 Verstappen clearly decided there was no point defending his position any longer and left the inside line free for Norris.

“In the end he just let me go,” Norris observed afterwards when talking to Sky. “He didn’t even put up a fight at the end. It just depends how much he wants to fight you.”

Therefore the issue at stake is not ‘should Verstappen have let Norris past?’ but ‘why didn’t Verstappen let Norris past sooner than he did?’

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Verstappen lost the chance to make the decision when he fought Piastri when he braked slightly too deep at turn one on lap 14 and ran wide, which Piastri took advantage of. He didn’t make the same mistake with Norris.

The evolving race situation undoubtedly influenced Verstappen’s thinking, not just in terms of what happened on the track but what was going on around it. Piastri’s pace in clear air showed how dominant McLaren were. And Verstappen’s one glimmer of hope disappeared as he fought with Norris.

As the race began, teams warned their drivers that a significant band of rain had materialised to the west of the circuit and was moving towards it. At first the rain looked likely to be heavy and would hit the track at around the half-distance point.

But as Verstappen’s fight with Norris wore on the rain cell faded and it became clear the race was likely to remain dry. This ended Verstappen’s hopes of beating either of the McLarens. Had he kept Piastri or Norris at bay until the rain hit, and got out of the pits ahead of them on a wet track, he would have been difficult to beat.

Red Bull wasn’t the only team watching the skies and preparing for the possibility of rain. “We estimated the chance of a wet race at about 50% but, despite a cell getting incredibly close, the rain just passed us by,” Mercedes’ head of trackside engineering Andrew Shovlin explained.

Verstappen’s best chance to win the race was always going to be holding onto the lead until the rain came, in which conditions his car would be more competitive compared to the McLarens and the combination of a wet track and deactivated DRS would make him much harder to pass.

When it became clear no rain was going to come, Verstappen gave up the fight against Norris and made his priority salvaging what he could. But as Verstappen made it clear in his interviews, compared to a potential victory, he cares little for the difference between third and fourth place.

Norris’s post-race comments should also be considered in the context of his near-miss with Verstappen at turn two on lap one. At that point in the race no one knew McLaren were going to be so quick they would win by over half a minute. Had Norris suspected, he could have backed down, bided his time, and been in a far better place to win the race.

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2025 Miami Grand Prix lap chart

The positions of each driver on every lap. Click name to highlight, right-click to reset. Toggle drivers using controls below:

2025 Miami Grand Prix race chart

The gaps between each driver on every lap compared to the leader’s average lap time. Very large gaps omitted. Scroll to zoom, drag to pan and right-click to reset. Toggle drivers using controls below:

2025 Miami Grand Prix lap times

All the lap times by the drivers (in seconds, very slow laps excluded). Scroll to zoom, drag to pan and toggle drivers using the control below:

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2025 Miami Grand Prix fastest laps

Each driver’s fastest lap:

2025 Miami Grand Prix tyre strategies

The tyre strategies for each driver:

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2025 Miami Grand Prix pit stop times

How long each driver’s pit stops took:

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