Max Verstappen has been in strong shape all weekend in Austin and his dominant performance in qualifying gives him the chance to further slash his points deficit to the McLaren drivers.
But with limited practice, a disrupted sprint race and changing wind conditions at the track, the grand prix could produce some surprises – even if the field make it around the first corner without incident.
Weather
Conditions will remain hot for today’s race, though temperatures should not be quite as high as yesterday. They are expected to exceed 31C, putting them above the level seen last year.
As in Singapore, a heat hazard has been declared. This means teams must run their cooling systems, though drivers are not required to use them.
The windy conditions caused problems for some drivers in qualifying yesterday and George Russell expects that to play a role in the grand prix as well. “The wind is likely to shift 180 degrees tomorrow which will be interesting,” he said.
Start
Saturday’s sprint race gave a dramatic reminder that the sharp first corner at the Circuit of the Americas can provoke crashes. It is one McLaren won’t forget in a hurry, not just because it took both their cars out of the race but also deprived them of valuable data which has left them on the back foot for the rest of the weekend.
However the extra-wide entry into the first corner is a temptation drivers can rarely resist. Verstappen demonstrated this last year when he started from second on the grid and grabbed the opportunity not only to overtake pole-winner Lando Norris but also force him onto the run-off area, costing him more positions.
Their positions are reversed this year not only in terms of starting order – Verstappen on pole, Norris second – but also the championship. Norris would therefore do well to follow his rival’s example from 12 months ago, particularly as Verstappen knows a collision would hurt his championship chances more than the McLaren driver’s.
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Distance from pole position to first braking zone. Source: Mercedes
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Strategy
There is one significant difference in Pirelli’s tyre allocations for this year compared to 12 months ago. While the C4 and C3 served as the soft and medium respectively last season, this year drivers have the harder C1 compound as the hard tyre rather than the C2.
Last year drivers chose the following compounds to start the race on:
| Pos. | Driver | Team | Tyre compound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lando Norris | McLaren-Mercedes | Medium |
| 2 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT | Medium |
| 3 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Ferrari | Medium |
| 4 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | Medium |
| 5 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren-Mercedes | Medium |
| 6 | Pierre Gasly | Alpine-Renault | Medium |
| 7 | Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin-Mercedes | Medium |
| 8 | Kevin Magnussen | Haas-Ferrari | Medium |
| 9 | Sergio Perez | Red Bull-Honda RBPT | Medium |
| 10 | Yuki Tsunoda | RB-Honda RBPT | Medium |
| 11 | Nico Hulkenberg | Haas-Ferrari | Medium |
| 12 | Esteban Ocon | Alpine-Renault | Medium |
| 13 | Lance Stroll | Aston Martin-Mercedes | Hard |
| 14 | Alexander Albon | Williams-Mercedes | Medium |
| 15 | Franco Colapinto | Williams-Mercedes | Hard |
| 16 | Valtteri Bottas | Sauber-Ferrari | Medium |
| 17 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | Hard |
| 18 | Zhou Guanyu | Sauber-Ferrari | Medium |
| 19 | Liam Lawson | RB-Honda RBPT | Hard |
| 20 | George Russell | Mercedes | Hard |
Pirelli believes the C1 hard will be a viable compound for the race, which could open up different strategic options. Drivers who start on the medium tyre compound could stretch it beyond lap 20 and make a single pit stop for hards – this was the preferred strategy last year.
Starting on a soft would offer more options, however. These could include attempting a two-stop strategy by switching to mediums followed by a final stint on mediums or softs, or to one-stop by changing to hards. However Pirelli does not believe one-stopping with the soft and medium compounds is a “realistic” strategy.
A further incentive to starting on the soft tyre is it would also give more grip for the start. A pit stop costs drivers around 21 seconds.
The drivers have the following sets of dry weather tyres available for the grand prix. Note that one of Verstappen’s sets of used soft tyres is relatively fresh as he did not start his final flying lap in qualifying:
| Tyres available for the race | Hard | Medium | Soft | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driver | New | Used | New | Used | New | Used |
| Max Verstappen | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Lando Norris | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Charles Leclerc | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| George Russell | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Lewis Hamilton | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Oscar Piastri | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Oliver Bearman | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Carlos Sainz Jnr | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Fernando Alonso | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Liam Lawson | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Pierre Gasly | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Franco Colapinto | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Esteban Ocon | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Lance Stroll | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Alexander Albon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Isack Hadjar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
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Overtaking
There are no changes to the DRS zones for this year’s race. Drivers can activate their rear wings on the straights after turns 11 and 20.
Russell attempted a daring move on Verstappen at turn 12 during the sprint race, but wasn’t able to pull it off. “There was a nice headwind in that corner,” he remarked afterwards, but as the wind is expected to swap direction today, passing may become trickier.
Speed trap
| P. | # | Driver | Car | Engine | Model | Max kph (mph) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | Andrea Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | Mercedes | W16 | 329.7 (204.9) |
| 2 | 14 | Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | Mercedes | AMR25 | 328.3 (204.0) |
| 3 | 55 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Williams | Mercedes | FW47 | 327.9 (203.7) |
| 4 | 63 | George Russell | Mercedes | Mercedes | W16 | 327.0 (203.2) |
| 5 | 10 | Pierre Gasly | Alpine | Renault | A525 | 327.0 (203.2) |
| 6 | 1 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | Honda RBPT | RB21 | 326.9 (203.1) |
| 7 | 22 | Yuki Tsunoda | Red Bull | Honda RBPT | RB21 | 326.9 (203.1) |
| 8 | 23 | Alexander Albon | Williams | Mercedes | FW47 | 326.4 (202.8) |
| 9 | 16 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | Ferrari | SF-25 | 326.4 (202.8) |
| 10 | 27 | Nico Hulkenberg | Sauber | Ferrari | C45 | 326.2 (202.7) |
| 11 | 30 | Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | Honda RBPT | 02 | 326.2 (202.7) |
| 12 | 87 | Oliver Bearman | Haas | Ferrari | VF-25 | 325.8 (202.4) |
| 13 | 4 | Lando Norris | McLaren | Mercedes | MCL39 | 325.6 (202.3) |
| 14 | 43 | Franco Colapinto | Alpine | Renault | A525 | 325.4 (202.2) |
| 15 | 44 | Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | Ferrari | SF-25 | 325.2 (202.1) |
| 16 | 81 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren | Mercedes | MCL39 | 324.3 (201.5) |
| 17 | 18 | Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | Mercedes | AMR25 | 323.8 (201.2) |
| 18 | 31 | Esteban Ocon | Haas | Ferrari | VF-25 | 323.3 (200.9) |
| 19 | 5 | Gabriel Bortoleto | Sauber | Ferrari | C45 | 322.4 (200.3) |
| 20 | 6 | Isack Hadjar | Racing Bulls | Honda RBPT | 02 | 272.5 (169.3) |
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Safety Cars
There hasn’t been a Safety Car (or Virtual Safety Car) period in the United States Grand Prix since the two consecutive deployments during the 2022 race. The first was caused by Valtteri Bottas spinning off and the second came when Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll tangled at the restart.
Grid
The grid for this year’s race is as follows. Any changes between now and the start of the race will be added here:
Championship implications
If the drivers finish where they start, Norris will cut Piastri’s points lead to just 12 points. Max Verstappen will go into the final five rounds 38 points behind the championship leader.
Over to you
Who’s your tip to win the United States Grand Prix? What will championship leader Piastri salvage from a poor weekend so far? Share your views on the race in the comments.
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