Lando Norris has a chance to take the championship lead after taking pole position for the Mexican Grand Prix in dominant fashion.
His championship rivals Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri need to make gains on the longest sprint to the first corner of the year to give themselves a chance to limit the damage in the points standings.
Meanwhile Ferrari are eyeing their best chance yet to score their first victory of the season. Here’s an overview of what lies ahead for the drivers in today’s race.
Weather
The conditions will remain warm and sunny on Sunday. However, unlike in the previous two rounds, it will not be hot enough to prompt the FIA to declare a ‘heat hazard’.
This race typically sees some of the highest track temperatures of the year.
Start
Formula 1 has become a “race to turn one” lamented George Russell after the United States Grand Prix. If that’s true then get ready for the longest race of the year.
The run from the grid to turn one at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez is comfortably the longest straight dash to the first corner on the F1 calendar. There is also often a significant difference in grip levels between the two different sides of the grid, though it didn’t stop Max Verstappen getting away quickly from second on the grid last year.
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We’ve seen some do-or-die moves into the first corner in recent years. Sergio Perez took himself out of contention when he tangled with Charles Leclerc in an over-optimistic move at the start in 2023. Two years earlier Mercedes squandered the advantage of a front row lock-out, allowing Max Verstappen to pass both their cars by cleanly out-braking them on the racing line.
Distance from pole position to first braking zone. Source: Mercedes
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Strategy
For the second race weekend in a row, teams’ strategy calls are likely to be shaped by Pirelli’s decision to bring a significantly harder ‘hard’ tyre. In Austin the drivers who started the race on the hard tyre immediately regretted it and the rest of the field ran the race using the soft and medium compound tyres. Today’s race could well go the same way, especially as Pirelli has reported significantly less graining than usual on its tyres in Mexico.
As we’ve seen several times this year, the field is now so close it spreads out slowly over a grand prix, creating few opportunities for the leaders to emerge into clean air after pitting. Changing tyres typically costs drivers around 22 seconds (though McLaren have had some notably slow pit stops lately).
All of which points towards a one-stop strategy race, with drivers using the soft and medium compound tyres. The key question at the start will be who chooses what.
In Austin, Leclerc was the only driver among the top 15 to opt for softs, and on the relatively short run to turn one he was able to use them to pass the medium-shod Norris. But on the huge run to the first corner in Mexico, choosing softs over mediums could pay off more.
As far as Norris is concerned, McLaren have a better understanding of their car’s performance this weekend than they did after their double retirement in the Austin sprint race, and they may be confident enough in their race pace to risk softs this time. They were concerned by the threat of a Safety Car in Austin, but this weekend they may feel that even if that happens, their pace on the medium tyres is good enough that they have nothing to fear.
Norris, like fellow front row starter Leclerc, has the added advantage of having saved a fresh set of soft tyres from qualifying. The full list of which tyres are available to drivers for the start of the race will be added here once it has been issued by Pirelli.
Last year drivers chose the following compounds to start the race on:
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| Pos. | Driver | Team | Tyre compound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Ferrari | Medium |
| 2 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT | Medium |
| 3 | Lando Norris | McLaren-Mercedes | Medium |
| 4 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | Medium |
| 5 | George Russell | Mercedes | Medium |
| 6 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | Medium |
| 7 | Kevin Magnussen | Haas-Ferrari | Medium |
| 8 | Pierre Gasly | Alpine-Renault | Medium |
| 9 | Alexander Albon | Williams-Mercedes | Medium |
| 10 | Nico Hulkenberg | Haas-Ferrari | Medium |
| 11 | Yuki Tsunoda | RB-Honda RBPT | Medium |
| 12 | Liam Lawson | RB-Honda RBPT | Hard |
| 13 | Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin-Mercedes | Medium |
| 14 | Lance Stroll | Aston Martin-Mercedes | Medium |
| 15 | Valtteri Bottas | Sauber-Ferrari | Hard |
| 16 | Franco Colapinto | Williams-Mercedes | Hard |
| 17 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren-Mercedes | Medium |
| 18 | Sergio Perez | Red Bull-Honda RBPT | Hard |
| 19 | Zhou Guanyu | Sauber-Ferrari | Hard |
| 20 | Esteban Ocon | Alpine-Renault | Hard |
Drivers have the following tyres available for the race:
| Tyres available for the race | Hard | Medium | Soft | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driver | New | Used | New | Used | New | Used |
| Lando Norris | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Charles Leclerc | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Lewis Hamilton | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| George Russell | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Max Verstappen | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Carlos Sainz Jnr | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Oscar Piastri | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Isack Hadjar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Oliver Bearman | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Esteban Ocon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Fernando Alonso | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Liam Lawson | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Alexander Albon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Pierre Gasly | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Lance Stroll | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Franco Colapinto | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Overtaking
There have been no changes to the DRS zones for this weekend’s race. Drivers can activate DRS on the main straight, after turn three and after turn 17.
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Speed trap
Front row starters Norris and Leclerc are closely matched in terms of top speed.
| P. | # | Driver | Car | Engine | Model | Max kph (mph) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Williams | Mercedes | FW47 | 352.7 (219.2) |
| 2 | 14 | Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | Mercedes | AMR25 | 351.4 (218.3) |
| 3 | 12 | Andrea Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | Mercedes | W16 | 351.1 (218.2) |
| 4 | 63 | George Russell | Mercedes | Mercedes | W16 | 351.1 (218.2) |
| 5 | 23 | Alexander Albon | Williams | Mercedes | FW47 | 350.9 (218.0) |
| 6 | 1 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | Honda RBPT | RB21 | 350.7 (217.9) |
| 7 | 44 | Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | Ferrari | SF-25 | 350.6 (217.9) |
| 8 | 16 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | Ferrari | SF-25 | 350.1 (217.5) |
| 9 | 43 | Franco Colapinto | Alpine | Renault | A525 | 350.1 (217.5) |
| 10 | 4 | Lando Norris | McLaren | Mercedes | MCL39 | 349.8 (217.4) |
| 11 | 22 | Yuki Tsunoda | Red Bull | Honda RBPT | RB21 | 349.5 (217.2) |
| 12 | 81 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren | Mercedes | MCL39 | 349.1 (216.9) |
| 13 | 18 | Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | Mercedes | AMR25 | 348.9 (216.8) |
| 14 | 10 | Pierre Gasly | Alpine | Renault | A525 | 348.7 (216.7) |
| 15 | 87 | Oliver Bearman | Haas | Ferrari | VF-25 | 347.4 (215.9) |
| 16 | 31 | Esteban Ocon | Haas | Ferrari | VF-25 | 346.7 (215.4) |
| 17 | 6 | Isack Hadjar | Racing Bulls | Honda RBPT | 02 | 345.9 (214.9) |
| 18 | 5 | Gabriel Bortoleto | Sauber | Ferrari | C45 | 345.7 (214.8) |
| 19 | 27 | Nico Hulkenberg | Sauber | Ferrari | C45 | 345.7 (214.8) |
| 20 | 30 | Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | Honda RBPT | 02 | 343.0 (213.1) |
Safety Cars
Last year a first-lap collision meant the Safety Car made an early appearance. It did not return after that and drivers had to make all their pit stops under green-flag running.
However a significant mid-race disruption occured in 2023. Kevin Magnussen crashed heavily and barrier damage meant the race was red-flagged and those who had not changed their tyres were able to do so without pitting: a significant advantage.
But disruptions of any kind aren’t necessarily common at this race. The 2022 grand prix was largely uninterrupted aside from a brief Virtual Safety Car deployment in the latter stages by which time all the drivers had made their pit stops.
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Grid
The grid for this year’s race is as follows. Any changes between now and the start of the race will be added here:
Championship implications
The championship lead will change hands if the drivers finish where they start. Norris would move five points clear of Piastri at the top of the standings while Verstappen would drop one point further behind the new leader.
Over to you
Which teams will risk starting on the soft tyres? Will Norris grab his chance to take the championship lead?
Share your views on how the Mexican Grand Prix will play out in the comments.
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