McLaren are poised to dominate another grand prix providing they can shake off the attention of Max Verstappen immediately behind them.
But changes to the tyre allocations and pit lane speed limit this weekend could offer all teams opportunities to get more creative with their strategies. Will that, or the threat of rain, prove enough for anyone to halt McLaren’s run of one-two finishes?
Here’s the key data for this weekend’s race.
Weather
Aside from a damp track at the start of final practice, the Formula 1 drivers have seen little of the rain which was forecast for the Dutch Grand Prix weekend. That isn’t likely to change tomorrow: A wet morning is expected in Zandvoort but the track should have plenty of time to dry out before the grand prix.
Conditions will be overcast and cool, however, with ambient temperatures reaching no higher than 20C.
Start
The run to the first corner is fairly short at Zandvoort but Max Verstappen got away well enough from second place last year to comfortably take the lead away from Lando Norris. The long, constant-radius first corner is bordered by a gravel trap so a driver trying to hang on around the outside could put themselves in danger of being run out wide.
Verstappen will start third this year and if he manages to get between either of the McLaren drivers at the start it is likely to prove decisive for the outcome of the race. Norris, second on the grid, will have to be especially careful.
Distance from pole position to first braking zone. Source: Mercedes
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Strategy
Drivers preferred one-stop strategies for last year’s dry race but there are two compelling reasons why they might risk an extra pit stop this year.
First, Pirelli has brought its C2, C3 and C4 compounds this year which are one stage softer than those used last year. Second, the pit lane speed limit has been increased from 60kph to 80kph, which means making a pit stop costs less time.
Despite that, overtaking is not easy at Zandvoort and a one-stop strategy still offers a considerable time saving. Drivers will therefore be keen to pursue that strategy if they can make it work.
The weather conditions could have a significant bearing. Cool and overcast conditions may prolong tyre life, making it easier for drivers to pull off a one-stop.
Last year drivers chose the following compounds to start the race on:
| Pos. | Driver | Team | Tyre compound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lando Norris | McLaren-Mercedes | Medium |
| 2 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT | Medium |
| 3 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren-Mercedes | Medium |
| 4 | George Russell | Mercedes | Medium |
| 5 | Sergio Perez | Red Bull-Honda RBPT | Medium |
| 6 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | Medium |
| 7 | Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin-Mercedes | Medium |
| 8 | Lance Stroll | Aston Martin-Mercedes | Medium |
| 9 | Pierre Gasly | Alpine-Renault | Medium |
| 10 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Ferrari | Medium |
| 11 | Yuki Tsunoda | RB-Honda RBPT | Soft |
| 12 | Nico Hulkenberg | Haas-Ferrari | Medium |
| 13 | Daniel Ricciardo | RB-Honda RBPT | Medium |
| 14 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | Soft |
| 15 | Esteban Ocon | Alpine-Renault | Medium |
| 16 | Valtteri Bottas | Sauber-Ferrari | Soft |
| 17 | Zhou Guanyu | Sauber-Ferrari | Medium |
| 18 | Logan Sargeant | Williams-Mercedes | Medium |
| 19 | Alexander Albon | Williams-Mercedes | Medium |
| 20 | Kevin Magnussen | Haas-Ferrari | Medium |
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Pole winner Oscar Piastri indicated he expects McLaren’s rivals to lean towards one-stop strategies. “I think us two are one of the only teams to have two hard [tyre sets] and a medium. I think pretty much everyone else has just one hard and one medium.
“So, we’ve got that kind of up our sleeve, but it also kind of tells you a little bit of what most people are thinking. We’ll wait and see, but we’ve got some options available.”
Drivers have the following sets of tyres available for the race:
| Tyres available for the race | Hard | Medium | Soft | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driver | New | Used | New | Used | New | Used |
| Oscar Piastri | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Lando Norris | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Max Verstappen | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Isack Hadjar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| George Russell | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Charles Leclerc | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Lewis Hamilton | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Liam Lawson | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Carlos Sainz Jnr | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Fernando Alonso | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Pierre Gasly | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Alexander Albon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Franco Colapinto | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Esteban Ocon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Oliver Bearman | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Lance Stroll | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Overtaking
Zandvoort has always been one of the trickier tracks to overtake at. There have been no changes to the DRS zones this year so drivers will be relying on the potential for more varied strategies to give them the grip advantage they need to attack.
If any drivers get involved in incidents, a reference for their penalty points totals can be found here:
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Speed trap
The range of top speeds is not very broad at a track where teams run higher downforce levels:
| P. | # | Driver | Car | Engine | Model | Max kph (mph) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | Alexander Albon | Williams | Mercedes | FW47 | 334.9 (208.1) |
| 2 | 55 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Williams | Mercedes | FW47 | 332.8 (206.8) |
| 3 | 22 | Yuki Tsunoda | Red Bull | Honda RBPT | RB21 | 332.6 (206.7) |
| 4 | 27 | Nico Hulkenberg | Sauber | Ferrari | C45 | 332.5 (206.6) |
| 5 | 1 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | Honda RBPT | RB21 | 331.8 (206.2) |
| 6 | 44 | Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | Ferrari | SF-25 | 331.7 (206.1) |
| 7 | 14 | Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | Mercedes | AMR25 | 331.7 (206.1) |
| 8 | 5 | Gabriel Bortoleto | Sauber | Ferrari | C45 | 331.4 (205.9) |
| 9 | 43 | Franco Colapinto | Alpine | Renault | A525 | 331.1 (205.7) |
| 10 | 18 | Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | Mercedes | AMR25 | 330.5 (205.4) |
| 11 | 6 | Isack Hadjar | Racing Bulls | Honda RBPT | 02 | 329.9 (205.0) |
| 12 | 30 | Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | Honda RBPT | 02 | 329.6 (204.8) |
| 13 | 10 | Pierre Gasly | Alpine | Renault | A525 | 329.3 (204.6) |
| 14 | 81 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren | Mercedes | MCL39 | 329.3 (204.6) |
| 15 | 63 | George Russell | Mercedes | Mercedes | W16 | 328.8 (204.3) |
| 16 | 31 | Esteban Ocon | Haas | Ferrari | VF-25 | 328.3 (204.0) |
| 17 | 16 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | Ferrari | SF-25 | 328.2 (203.9) |
| 18 | 4 | Lando Norris | McLaren | Mercedes | MCL39 | 328.1 (203.9) |
| 19 | 12 | Andrea Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | Mercedes | W16 | 327.2 (203.3) |
| 20 | 87 | Oliver Bearman | Haas | Ferrari | VF-25 | 326.0 (202.6) |
Safety Cars
Zandvoort is a narrow circuit with several gravel traps which cars can get stuck in, triggering Safety Car periods of either type. Although the Safety Car did not appear during last year’s race it did in 2023 and there was both a Safety Car and Virtual Safety Car period in 2022.
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Grid
The grid for this year’s race is as follows. Any changes between now and the start of the race will be added here:
Championship implications
If the drivers finish in the order they start, Piastri will increase his championship lead over Norris to 16 points:
Over to you
McLaren are firm favourites for a fifth consecutive one-two. Is anything likely to stop them? And how high can Isack Hadjar finish after his remarkable qualifying performance?
Share your views on the Dutch Grand Prix in the comments.
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