After two dry days, rain is expected to hit Spa-Francorchamps, which could turn the Belgian Grand Prix on its head. Here’s the strategy briefing for round 13 of the world championship.

Weather

The forecasts of rain on Sunday have been so persuasive that some teams swapped low-drag rear wings for steeper ones between the sprint race and qualifying on Saturday, in order to ensure they are prepared for wet conditions in the grand prix. The most noteworthy case was Max Verstappen, who won the sprint race thanks to the low-drag set-up which helped him blast past Oscar Piastri’s McLaren.

While the forecasts largely agree rain will hit Spa tomorrow, the estimates of the timing and volume vary. Showers of varying intensity are likely at different times throughout the day, interspersed by dry spells. A significant amount of rain is expected before the 3pm start time for the grand prix which could disrupt the support races and leave the run-off areas saturated.

Start

Distance from pole position to first braking zone. Source: Mercedes

Spa has one of the shortest runs to the first corner of any track on the F1 calendar, but that is only part of the story. The long sprint from that first corner to Les Combes matters most and as the sprint race showed it is all too easy for drivers to lose places there.

“It’s probably the hardest track to maintain the lead on the calendar from the start,” said Piastri, who started from pole on Saturday only to lose the lead – and victory – to Verstappen.

That will change, however, if it rains. “If the weather is wet I think pole position is an advantage, but it also depends on how wet it is,” said Piastri. “Whether Eau Rouge is flat [out] or not makes a big difference.”

The pole-winner can keep the lead at the start – Charles Leclerc did last year

Strategy

Last year drivers chose the following compounds to start the race on:

Pos. Driver Team Tyre compound
1 Charles Leclerc Ferrari Medium
2 Sergio Perez Red Bull-Honda RBPT Medium
3 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes Medium
4 Lando Norris McLaren-Mercedes Medium
5 Oscar Piastri McLaren-Mercedes Medium
6 George Russell Mercedes Medium
7 Carlos Sainz Jnr Ferrari Hard
8 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin-Mercedes Medium
9 Esteban Ocon Alpine-Renault Medium
10 Alexander Albon Williams-Mercedes Medium
11 Max Verstappen Red Bull-Honda RBPT Medium
12 Pierre Gasly Alpine-Renault Medium
13 Daniel Ricciardo RB-Honda RBPT Soft
14 Valtteri Bottas Sauber-Ferrari Medium
15 Lance Stroll Aston Martin-Mercedes Medium
16 Nico Hulkenberg Haas-Ferrari Medium
17 Kevin Magnussen Haas-Ferrari Medium
18 Logan Sargeant Williams-Mercedes Medium
19 Zhou Guanyu Sauber-Ferrari Hard
20 Yuki Tsunoda RB-Honda RBPT Medium

The full list of available slick tyres for the grand prix will be published here once it has been confirmed by Pirelli. No drivers have used any of their intermediate or wet weather tyres so far.

If the rain avoids the track, conditions are still likely to be significantly cooler than they were earlier in the weekend. In that case, Pirelli expects teams to bias their strategies towards the soft and medium tyre compounds, as the hard tyre is two steps harder than the medium, and likely to be a better tyre for hot conditions.

Overtaking

Spa-Francorchamps circuit map

The DRS zones are unchanged at Spa compared to last year. The activation points are at the exit of the final corner and the kink on the Kemmel straight (between turns four and five).

Incidents

Four drivers are at least halfway towards reaching 12 penalty points, which would trigger an automatic race ban. Max Verstappen has the highest penalty points total with nine, Oliver Bearman has eight while Oscar Piastri and Liam Lawson have six each.

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Speed trap

P. # Driver Car Engine Model Max kph (mph)
1 43 Franco Colapinto Alpine Renault A525 319.9 (198.8)
2 31 Esteban Ocon Haas Ferrari VF-25 318.5 (197.9)
3 10 Pierre Gasly Alpine Renault A525 318.3 (197.8)
4 63 George Russell Mercedes Mercedes W16 317.5 (197.3)
5 12 Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes Mercedes W16 316.6 (196.7)
6 30 Liam Lawson Racing Bulls Honda RBPT 02 315.9 (196.3)
7 44 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari Ferrari SF-25 315.8 (196.2)
8 22 Yuki Tsunoda Red Bull Honda RBPT RB21 315.7 (196.2)
9 4 Lando Norris McLaren Mercedes MCL39 315.4 (196.0)
10 16 Charles Leclerc Ferrari Ferrari SF-25 315.1 (195.8)
11 6 Isack Hadjar Racing Bulls Honda RBPT 02 314.7 (195.5)
12 23 Alexander Albon Williams Mercedes FW47 314.5 (195.4)
13 81 Oscar Piastri McLaren Mercedes MCL39 314.1 (195.2)
14 5 Gabriel Bortoleto Sauber Ferrari C45 314.1 (195.2)
15 55 Carlos Sainz Jnr Williams Mercedes FW47 313.4 (194.7)
16 27 Nico Hulkenberg Sauber Ferrari C45 313.4 (194.7)
17 1 Max Verstappen Red Bull Honda RBPT RB21 312.3 (194.1)
18 14 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin Mercedes AMR25 311.7 (193.7)
19 87 Oliver Bearman Haas Ferrari VF-25 311.1 (193.3)
20 18 Lance Stroll Aston Martin Mercedes AMR25 311.0 (193.2)

Safety Cars

No Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car periods occured during either of the last two Belgian grands prix. If a rolling restart is needed, the leader can find themselves similarly vulnerable to attack on the run to Les Combes as is seen at the start of a race.

Grid

The grid for this year’s race is as follows. Any changes between now and the start of the race will be added here:

Championship implications

If the drivers finish in the order they have qualified, Norris will cut Piastri’s championship lead to just two points.

Over to you

Who has the best chance to win the Belgian Grand Prix if it rains – or stays dry? Share your views on the race in the comments.

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